Acht maritime Engpässe und 14 stilisierte Handelsrouten für Öl, LNG und Container. Schließen oder drosseln Sie eine Passage und legen Sie die Dauer fest. Das Modell leitet um und berechnet Zusatztage, Frachtkosten, Preisimpuls und welche Importregionen zuerst betroffen sind. Alle Mengen sind gerundete Richtwerte.
Eight maritime chokepoints and 14 stylised trade lanes for crude, LNG and containers. Close or throttle a passage and set its duration. The model reroutes and computes extra days, freight cost, price impulse and which importing regions are hit first. All volumes are rounded estimates.
Maritime chokepoints & energy flows. Close or throttle a strait, set how long it lasts, and the model reroutes 14 stylised trade lanes (crude, LNG, containers), computes supply at risk, fleet-time losses, freight and insurance effects, and ranks the regions hit first. All volumes are approximate, public-source, rounded — illustrative, not for decision-making.
| Lane | Volume | Original route | Status | Reroute | + days | + nm | + cost |
|---|
Eight chokepoints carry stylised daily flows (crude & products in mb/d, LNG and containers as a share of global seaborne trade). Each of the 14 trade lanes lists the straits it passes
and one or more alternative routings with extra nautical miles and days. For every lane the model fills routes in order of preference, limited by the remaining capacity of each strait
(open = 100 %, throttled = 50 %, closed = 0 %); whatever cannot be routed is lost, minus a small overland bypass where pipelines exist (Gulf → Red Sea, Black Sea rail).
Rerouted cargo arrives, but longer voyages tie up ships: the fleet-time factor f = extra days ÷ round-trip days cuts deliverable capacity to (1 + spare) ÷ (1 + f),
and the gap below 100 % is counted as a steady deficit. Oil supply at risk = lost + fleet-time deficit. The crude price impulse applies a simple elasticity rule
Δp ≈ (shortfall − emergency stock release, ≤ 4 mb/d) ÷ world supply ÷ |elasticity|, damped by 1 − e−D/30 because inventories cushion short disruptions.
The freight cost index combines longer voyage time, fleet utilisation above 90 % (non-linear, normalised so the undisturbed fleet scores 100) and war-risk premia; the insurance surcharge converts the premium into $/bbl and $/TEU for ships that still transit a throttled strait.
Regions hit first divides a usable strategic buffer (≈ 30 % of each region's stock days × daily imports) by the region's daily shortfall. The timeline replays the scenario day by day:
diverted ships arrive late (a delivery gap as long as the detour), repositioning ramps up over about a week, and residual deficits fade a week after a strait reopens.
A stress model like this is a thinking tool, not an oracle: its usefulness comes from making every assumption visible and adjustable, so that a board can argue about elasticities and stock days instead of about a single headline number. Mature organisations invest in this scenario discipline — clean reference data, explicit mechanisms, ranges rather than point estimates — before they invest in more sophisticated models, and they keep a named human accountable for the assumptions a model inherits.
Research and teaching demo — not policy, trading or investment advice, and not for operational decision-making. Chokepoint volumes, lane volumes, detour distances, stock days and import figures are approximate, drawn from public sources and rounded; the routing, elasticity and fleet-time rules are deliberate simplifications. Country and region names are generic; no live data, no tracking of vessels. Everything runs in your browser and nothing is stored.