Zehn kritische Rohstoffe mit Förder- und Raffinerieanteilen nach Ländern und Konzentrationsindex. Lassen Sie ein Land einen Exportstopp verhängen und sehen Sie Lücke, Erholungszeit und betroffene Produktlinien von Batterie bis Chip. Lager, Recycling, Substitution und neue Kapazität sind die Hebel. Anteile sind gerundete Richtwerte.
Ten critical minerals with mining and refining shares by country and a concentration index. Let one country impose an export ban and see gap, recovery time and affected product lines from batteries to chips. Stockpiles, recycling, substitution and new capacity are the levers. Shares are rounded estimates.
Concentration risk and recovery · ten materials · mining and refining stage · 60-month monthly simulation of supply gap, levers and product-line exposure
Intensity weights 0–1: illustrative importance of a material to the product line, not bill-of-material quantities.
| Material | Top miner | Top refiner | HHI mining | HHI refining | Single-country dep. | Substitution | Recycling | Stockpile | Lead time mine / refinery | Demand growth | Peak gap |
|---|
approx., public sources, rounded — illustrative, not for decision-making · HHI > 2,500 concentrated · > 5,000 highly concentrated
For each of ten materials the demo holds approximate country shares of mining and of refining / processing (rounded public figures;
the remainder is "others"). Concentration is the Herfindahl–Hirschman index HHI = Σ share² on a 0–10,000 scale — above 2,500 counts as
concentrated, above 5,000 as highly concentrated — and the single-country dependency is the largest share at either stage.
A scenario removes a country's share at the chosen stage(s), scaled by severity: because mining and refining are sequential, the binding loss is
max(mining loss, refining loss). The simulation then runs month by month for 60 months. Demand grows at the material's trend rate;
baseline supply grows with it. During the ban window supply is cut; afterwards it recovers over three months. Four levers close the gap:
stockpile release draws down up to the material's typical inventory (released months are capped by what exists), recycling adds percentage
points of demand linearly over three years, substitution lowers demand after a lag that depends on how hard the material is to replace
(6 / 12 / 24 months, reaching 100 / 75 / 50 % of the target), and new capacity elsewhere comes online only after the mine or refinery lead time and ramps
over a year to cover the chosen share of the initial loss. The price impulse uses a short-run elasticity of 0.35 (index = 1 + gap / 0.35, capped).
Product-line exposure is the intensity-weighted mean gap across the materials a product depends on.
Shares are approximate, change every year with new mines, refineries and trade flows, and are rounded for teaching purposes; a real analysis would pull them from a maintained master-data source with a date stamp and a provenance trail. By-product metals (gallium, germanium) are shown as if mined directly, and inventories, grades and contract structures are ignored.
Before any model can forecast a shortage, an organisation needs master data it can trust: who supplies what, from where, at which stage, as of when. Most of the value here is in the provenance and currency of ten small tables, not in the arithmetic. Scenario capability — the ability to ask "what if this country restricts this stage for this long" and get a consistent answer within seconds — is a maturity marker in its own right, and it only becomes decision-grade once the inputs are governed as carefully as the outputs.
Research and teaching demo. Country shares and material parameters are approximate, rounded public figures — illustrative, not authoritative statistics — and the ban scenarios are hypothetical. This is not policy, procurement or investment advice. Everything runs in your browser; no data is stored and nothing is sent to a server.