← ai·maturity Lab Demo · fictional supply chain · research model snapshot
Worum geht es

Eine fiktive Lieferantenliste wird mit dem Konfliktmodell verknüpft: Welche Werke, Warengruppen und Produkte hängen an Hochrisiko-Ländern? Ändern Sie Horizont und Schwelle oder testen Sie Dual Sourcing und Umsatzverlagerung. Achten Sie auf die Single Points of Failure, die erst durch die Verknüpfung sichtbar werden.

What this is about

A fictional supplier list is linked to the conflict model: which plants, categories and products depend on high-risk countries? Change horizon and threshold, or test dual sourcing and shifting spend. Note the single points of failure that only become visible through the link.

Supply Chain Location Risk loading model

Demo Components AG (fictional) · 3 plants, – suppliers · country risk from a conflict-forecast research model (snapshot –) mapped onto spend, sourcing structure and lead times. Change the lens or test interventions — every figure recomputes instantly.

Suppliers
–
tier 1 / tier 2
Spend at risk
–
in countries above threshold
High-risk countries
–
of sourcing countries
Single points of failure
–
single-sourced above threshold
Expected disruption index
–
% of spend, probability-weighted

Supplier network · location risk marker size = spend share · colour = country risk

Supplier (size = spend share) Risk 01 Demo plant

Suppliers click a column header to sort

Supplier Country Tier Category Spend % Lead time Sourcing Feeds Risk Exposure

How it works

Each supplier is located in a country. The country's risk comes from a research conflict-forecast model (snapshot –): for countries currently in active conflict the model's probability of remaining active over the chosen horizon, for peaceful countries the calibrated probability of conflict onset. Supplier exposure is then spend share × country risk × (dual-sourced ? 0.5 : 1) × lead-time factor, where the lead-time factor runs from 0.6 (short, easy to re-source) to 1.0 (12+ weeks). Summing exposure gives the expected disruption index — the probability-weighted share of annual spend that sits in a disrupted location, scaled 0–100. Exposure is split equally across the plants and product families a supplier feeds. Spend at risk is the share of spend in countries whose risk exceeds the threshold; a single point of failure is a single-sourced supplier in such a country. The what-if controls change the horizon, dual-source the top-N single points of failure (halving their exposure) or move a share of spend from one country to another (the moved share inherits the target country's risk). The baseline is always the 12-month view without interventions at the current threshold.

Demo Components AG, its plants and all suppliers are fictional; names, spend and lead times are synthetic and deterministic. Country risk is a research model snapshot (as of –), not a live feed, and conflict risk is only one dimension of location risk (no sanctions, logistics, climate or financial factors). This is a method demonstration, not procurement advice. Everything runs in your browser; no data is stored.